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The Role of Russian Secondary Supplies to 2013 and Beyond

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The ongoing US-Russia HEU deal expires in 2013. One particular question therefore suggests itself - what might be the role of Russian secondary sources in the world’s nuclear fuel supply portfolio beyond 2013? Or even more precisely - what might be the potential quantities coming from Russian secondary supplies?

Regarding the available level of LEU from Russian HEU downblending beyond 2013, the previous approach of assuming between 1/6 (1,500 t U) and 1/2 (4,500 t U) of the current level of downblended Russian HEU (or 9,000 t U equivalent (t Uequ)) is questionable as it simply cannot be substantiated.

Instead - as also suggested and strongly recommended by Russian representatives - the level of Russian secondary supply sources should come from an in-depth analysis (projection) of the Russian supply/demand situation based on best estimates and knowledge of both the demand and the supply side.

Consequently, this “Special Report on the Russian Supply and Demand Situation” examines the need for Russian secondary supplies from now until 2013 (which is fairly well known) and - above all – the continued need for secondary supplies after the HEU deal expires in 2013. This analysis focuses on three scenarios (lower, reference and upper) for the Russian supply and demand side for each of uranium, conversion and enrichment.