Information Papers

The Nuclear Renaissance

Since about 2001 there has been much talk about an imminent nuclear revival or "renaissance" which implies that the nuclear industry has been dormant or in decline for some time. Whereas this may generally be the case for the Western world, nuclear capacity has been expanding in Eastern Europe and Asia. Indeed, globally, the share of nuclear in world electricity has remained constant at around 16% since the mid 1980s, with output from nuclear reactors actually increasing to match the growth in global electricity consumption.

Today nuclear energy is back on the policy agendas of many countries, with projections for new build similar to or exceeding those of the early years of nuclear power. This signals a revival in support for nuclear power in the West that was diminished by the accidents at Three Mile Island and Chernobyl and also by nuclear power plant construction cost overruns in the 1970s and 1980s.

Drivers for the Nuclear Renaissance

The first generation of nuclear plants were justified by the need to alleviate urban smog caused by coal-fired power plants. Nuclear was also seen as an economic source of base-load electricity which reduced dependence on overseas imports of fossil fuels. Today's drivers for nuclear build have evolved:

Increasing energy demand 

Global population growth in combination with industrial development will lead to a doubling of electricity consumption by 2030. Besides this incremental growth, there will be a need to renew a lot of generating stock in the USA and the EU over the same period. An increasing shortage of fresh water calls for energy-intensive desalination plants, and in the longer term hydrogen production for transport purposes will need large amounts of electricity and/or high temperature heat.

Climate change 

Increased awareness of the dangers and effects of global warming and climate change has led decision makers, media and the public to realize that the use of fossil fuels must be reduced and replaced by low-emission sources of energy, such as nuclear power, the only readily available large-scale alternative to fossil fuels for production of continuous, reliable supply of electricity.

Economics 

Increasing fossil fuel prices have greatly improved the economics of nuclear power for electricity now. Several studies show that nuclear energy is the most cost-effective of the available base-load technologies. In addition, as carbon emission reductions are encouraged through various forms of government incentives and trading schemes, the economic benefits of nuclear power will increase further.

Insurance against future price exposure 

A longer-term advantage of uranium over fossil fuels is the low impact that increased fuel prices will have on the final electricity production costs, since a large proportion of those costs is in the capital cost of the plant. This insensitivity to fuel price fluctuations offers a way to stabilize power prices in deregulated markets.

Security of Supply 

A re-emerging topic on many political agendas is security of supply, as countries realize how vulnerable they are to interrupted deliveries of oil and gas. The abundance of naturally occurring uranium makes nuclear power attractive from an energy security standpoint.

As the nuclear industry is moving away from small national programmes towards global cooperative schemes, serial production of new plants will drive construction costs down and further increase the competitiveness of nuclear energy.

In practice, is a rapid expansion of nuclear power capacity possible?

Most reactors today are built in under five years (first concrete to first power), with four years being state of the art and three years being the aim with prefabrication. Several years are required for preliminary approvals before construction.

It is noteworthy that in the 1980s, 218 power reactors started up, an average of one every 17 days. These included 47 in USA, 42 in France and 18 in Japan. The average power was 923.5 MWe. So it is not hard to imagine a similar number being commissioned in a decade after about 2015. But with China and India getting up to speed with nuclear energy and a world energy demand double the 1980 level in 2015, a realistic estimate of what is possible might be the equivalent of one 1000 MWe unit worldwide every 5 days.

A relevant historical benchmark is that from 1941 to 1945, 18 US shipyards built over 2700 Liberty Ships. These were standardised 10,800 dwt cargo ships of a very basic British design but they became symbolic of US industrial wartime productivity and were vital to the war effort. Average construction time was 42 days in the shipyard, often using prefabricated modules*. In 1943, three were being completed every day. They were 135 metres long and could carry 9100 tonnes of cargo.

* As a publicity stunt, and using a lot of prefabrication, in 1942 the Robert G. Peary was launched in under five days and ready for sea three days later.

Public acceptance

During the early years of nuclear power, there was a greater tendency amongst the public to respect the decisions of authorities licensing the plants, but this changed for a variety of reasons. No revival of nuclear power is possible without the acceptance of communities living next to facilities and the public at large as well as the politicians they elect.

The Chernobyl disaster marked the nadir of public support for nuclear power. However, this tragedy underscored the reason for high standards of design and construction required in the West. It could never have been licensed outside the Soviet Union, incompetent plant operators exacerbated the problem, and partly through Cold War isolation, there was no real safety culture. The global cooperation in sharing operating experience and best practices in safety culture as a result of the accident has been of benefit worldwide. The nuclear industry's safety record over the last 20 years is unrivalled and has helped restore public faith in nuclear power. Over this period, operating experience has tripled, from about 4000 reactor-years to more than 12,500 reactor years.

Another factor in public reassurance is the much smaller than anticipated public health effects of the Chernobyl accident. At the time many scientists predicted that tens of thousands would die as a result of the dispersal of radioactive material. In fact, according to the UN's Chernobyl Forum report, as of mid 2005, fewer than 60 deaths had been directly attributed to radiation from the disaster, and further deaths from cancer are uncertain.

One of the criticisms often levelled against nuclear power is the alleged lack of strategy and provision for its long-lived wastes. It is argued that local communities would never be prepared to host a repository for such waste. However, experience has shown in Sweden and Finland, that with proper consultation and compensation mostly in the form of long-term job prospects, communities are quite prepared to host repositories. Indeed in Sweden, two communities are currently competing to be selected for the siting of the final repository.

New nuclear power capacity

With 30 reactors being built around the world today, another 35 or more planned to come online during the next 10 years, and over two hundred further back in the pipeline, the global nuclear industry is clearly going forward strongly. Countries with established programmes are seeking to replace old reactors as well as expand capacity, and an additional 25 countries are either considering or have already decided to make nuclear energy part of their power generation capacity. All parts of the world are involved in this development, and a few examples follow:

China

The Chinese government plans to increase nuclear generating capacity to 40 GWe by 2020. China has completed construction and commenced operation of eight nuclear power plants within the last five years, and there are currently eight more units under construction or about to start construction and that are planned to be connected to the grid within five years. At least eight more reactors will start construction within the next few years, and an additional 75 reactors are proposed in recent projections.

India

India's target is to construct 20 to 30 new reactors by 2020 as part of its national energy policy. These reactors include light- and heavy water reactors as well as fast reactors. Seven power reactors are under construction, of both indigenous and foreign design, and including a 500 MWe prototype fast breeder reactor. This will take India's ambitious thorium programme to stage 2, and set the scene for eventual utilization of the country's abundant thorium to fuel reactors.

Russia

Russia plans to build 40 GWe of new nuclear power by 2025, using domestically designed light water reactors. Construction of a large fast breeder unit has been prioritised, and development proceeds on others, aiming for significant exports. An initial floating power plant is under construction, with delivery in 2010.

EUROPE

Finland and France are both expanding their fleets of nuclear power plants with the 1600 MWe EPR from Areva, 40 of which will eventually replace all present French units. Several countries in Eastern Europe are currently constructing (Romania) or have firm plans to build new nuclear power plants (Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia and Turkey). Italy is considering a revival of its scrapped nuclear program, and has already invested in reactors in Slovakia and sought to do so in France.

A UK government energy paper in mid 2006 endorsed the replacement of the country's ageing fleet of nuclear reactors with new nuclear build. Sweden has abandoned its plans to prematurely decommission its nuclear power, and is now investing heavily in life extensions and uprates. Hungary, Slovakia and Spain are all planning for life extensions on existing plants.

A number of countries are considering developing nuclear programmes, among them Poland with Estonia and Latvia, who are looking into a joint project with established nuclear power producer Lithuania.

NORTH AMERICA

Canada

The Ontario government has decided to refurbish and restart four reactors ­ adding 25 years to operating lifetime ­ as a step in its plan to expand its nuclear fleet. Two more reactors will be needed for Ontario under mid 2006 policy. Alberta is now considering using nuclear power to extract oil from its northern deposits of oil sands. AECL is developing new designs of its CANDU reactors, and is bidding for exports.

United States

In the USA, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has received notice of application for joint construction and operating licences for 19 new units, and it is clear that there will be substantial new nuclear capacity by 2020. One of the reasons for the lack of new build in the USA has been the extremely successful evolution in maintenance strategies. Over the last 15 years, changes have increased utilization of US nuclear power plants, with the increased output corresponding to 19 new 1000 MW plants being built.

SOUTH AMERICA

Argentina and Brazil both have commercial nuclear reactors generating electricity, and additional reactors are planned or under construction. Chile has a research reactor in operation and has the infrastructure and intention to build commercial reactors.

Japan & S. Korea

Japan and South Korea have plans or placed orders for 11 and 8 new nuclear power plants, respectively. Both countries are also involved in intense research on future reactor designs.

Pakistan

Pakistan is expanding its nuclear fleet with Chinese designed reactors, and its 2005 Energy Security Plan includes construction of an additional 8 GWe of nuclear capacity by 2030.

SE ASIA

Indonesia has decided to accelerate government decisions in order to have a nuclear power plant operational by 2016, and Vietnam intends to have it first nuclear power plant operating in 2017. Bangladesh signed an agreement with China in 2005 regarding nuclear cooperation and plans.

CENTRAL ASIA

Uranium-abundant Kazakhstan is working closely with Russia in planning development of small new reactors for its own use and export.

AFRICA

In South Africa a feasibility

study is assessing plans for a third conventional nuclear power unit. There is also strong consideration of constructing a fleet of Pebble Bed Modular Reactors (PBMRs).

Nigeria has sought the support of the International Atomic Energy Agency to develop plans for two 1000 MWe reactors, and Egypt has revived its plans for a combined nuclear power and desalination plant through its ties with Russia's Rosatom.

The rest of the Fuel Cycle is following

Two major new Canadian uranium mine projects are coming into production in the next few years, and Australian, Namibian and Kazakh mines are all expanding their operations.

Recent developments and forecast demand for uranium have more than doubled the market price for the commodity in the last year. This has little effect on production costs for nuclear energy, but it has led to a renewed interest in uranium deposits that were not profitable to mine under previous prices.

Regarding enrichment, efficient centrifuge technology is replacing the older energy-intensive diffusion technique and several plants are under construction in France and the USA. A new Australian process based on laser excitation is under development by GE.

International Cooperation

Many of the issues connected with nuclear power ­ energy security, climate change, nuclear safety and non-proliferation - are global in dimension. Consequently, several initiatives have been taken to promote international cooperation in research and trade.

A major difference from the boom in nuclear power during the 60s and 70s, is that major nuclear industry companies span several countries, giving much enhanced international collaboration. Also, countries with an established nuclear industry can, through formal international collaboration under IAEA auspices, assist developing countries to gain access to advanced technologies, helping them to battle poverty without emissions of greenhouse gases.

Generation IV International Forum (GIF) and and the International Project on Innovative Nuclear Reactors and Fuel Cycles (INPRO) are two long-term research projects where leading scientists from a dozen countries join forces in the effort to develop future reactor designs. The former looks at six different types of reactor that will improve plant safety and economics and at the same time reduce proliferation risk. INPRO is focused more on assessment methodology for the needs of developing countries.

There are already examples of the globalization of the nuclear industry.

At the commercial level, by the end of 2006 three major Western-Japanese alliances had formed to dominate much of the world reactor supply market:

Several of China's existing and planned reactors will use technology from Canada, Russia, France and USA ­ while China itself assists countries like Pakistan and Bangladesh to develop their nuclear programmes.

See also:

WNA Information Paper on 'Plans for New Reactors Worldwide'.
WNA Information Paper on 'Emerging Nuclear Energy Countries'.