World Energy Needs and Nuclear Power

(June 2007)

The world will need greatly increased energy supply in the next 20 years, especially cleanly-generated electricity.
Electricity demand is increasing much more rapidly than overall energy use and is likely to almost double from 2004 to 2030.
Nuclear power provides over 16% of the world's electricity, almost 24% of electricity in OECD countries, and 34% in the EU. Its use is increasing.
Nuclear power is the most environmentally benign way of producing electricity on a large scale. Without it most of the world would have to rely almost entirely on fossil fuels for base-load electricity production.
Renewable energy sources other than hydro have high generating costs but are helpful at the margin in providing clean power.

Primary energy and electricity (OECD 2006 reference case)

From 1980 to 2004 total world primary energy demand grew by 54%, and to 2030 it is projected to grow at much the same rate (average 1.6% per year, from 469 EJ to 716 EJ). Electricity growth is even stronger, and is projected to almost double from 2004 to 2030 (growing at average 2.6% per year from 17,408 TWh to 33,750 TWh). Increased demand is most dramatic in developing countries and that is projected to increase, as the following graph indicates. Currently some two billion people have no access to electricity, and it is a high priority to address this lack.

With the United Nations predicting world population growth from 6.4 billion in 2004 to 8.1 billion by 2030, demand for energy must increase substantially over that period. Both population growth and increasing standards of living for many people in developing countries will cause strong growth in energy demand, expected to be 1.6% per year, or 53% from 2004 to 2030.

Nuclear power generation is an established part of the world's electricity mix providing over 16% of world electricity (cf. coal 40%, oil 10%, natural gas 15% and hydro & other 19%). It is especially suitable for large-scale, base-load electricity demand.

The World Energy Outlook 2006 from the OECD's International Energy Agency (IEA) highlights the increasing importance of nuclear power in meeting energy needs while achieving security of supply and minimising carbon dioxide emissions. If policies remain unchanged, world energy demand to 2030 is forecast to increase by 53% accompanied by supply crises, giving a "dirty, insecure and expensive" energy future which is unsustainable. Over 70% of the increased energy demand is from developing countries, led by China and India - China will overtake the USA as top CO2 emitter by 2010.

The report demonstrates that nuclear power could make a major contribution to reducing dependence on imported gas and curbing CO2 emissions in a cost-effective way, since its uranium fuel is abundant. However governments must play a stronger role in facilitating private investment, especially in liberalized electricity markets where the trade-off between security and low price has been a disincentive to investment in new plant and grid infrastructure. Investment of US$ 20.2 trillion is required by 2030 under the IEA alternative energy scenario, increasing nuclear capacity by 41% to 519 GWe and reducing energy demand by 10% and CO2 emissions by 16% compared with projections on present basis. Of this amount, $11.3 trillion is for electricity: $5.2 trillion for generation and the rest for transmission and distribution.

The US Energy Information Administration's International Energy Outlook 2007 comes to similar conclusions. Its reference case projects primary energy consumption growing from 471 EJ in 2004 to 640 EJ in 2020 and 740 EJ in 2030, a 57% increase over 25 years. For electricity, it shows 16,424 TWh in 2004 and projects 19,554 TWh in 2010, 24,959 TWh in 2020 and 30,364 TWh in 2030 - an 85% increase over 25 years.

The US report shows nuclear generation increasing from 2619 TWh in 2004 to 3255 TWh in 2020 and 3619 TWh in 2030, with a 4% growth rate in non-OECD countries.

Generation options

The renewable energy sources for electricity constitute a diverse group, from wind, solar, tidal and wave energy to hydro, geothermal and biomass-based power generation. Apart from hydro power in the few places where it is very plentiful, none of these is suitable, intrinsically or economically, for large-scale power generation where continuous, reliable supply is needed.

Growing use will however be made of the renewable energy sources in the years ahead, although their role is limited by their intermittent nature. Their economic attractiveness is still an issue also. Renewables will have most appeal where demand is for small-scale, intermittent supply of electricity. In the OECD about 2% of electricity is from renewables other than hydro and this is expected to increase to 4% by 2015.

Without nuclear power the world would have to rely almost entirely on fossil fuels, especially coal, to meet electricity demands for base-load electricity production. There is as much electricity generated by nuclear power today as from all sources worldwide in 1960.

Greenhouse Gases

On a global scale nuclear power currently reduces carbon dioxide emissions by some 2.5 billion tonnes per year (relative to the main alternative of coal-fired generation, about 2 billion tonnes relative to the present fuel mix). Carbon dioxide accounts for half of the human-contributed portion of the global warming effect of the atmosphere.

The UN Intergovernment Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has comprehensively reviewed global warming and has reached a consensus that the phenomenon is real and does pose a significant environmental threat during the next century if fossil fuel use continues even at present global levels. See also Global Warming - science paper.

The 2007 IPCC report on mitigation of climate change says that the most cost-effective option for restricting the temperature rise to under 3°C will require an increase in non-carbon electricity generation from 34% (nuclear plus hydro) now to 48 - 53% by 2030, along with other measures. With a doubling of overall electricity demand by then, and a carbon emission cost of US$ 50 per tonne of CO2, nuclear's share of electricity generation is projected by IPCC to grow from 16% now to 18% of the increased demand (ie 2650 TWh to some 6000 TWh/yr), representing more than a doubling of the current nuclear output by 2030. The report projects other non-carbon sources apart from hydro contributing some 12-17% of global electricity generation by 2030.

These projected figures are estimates, and it is evident that if renewables fail to grow as much as hoped it means that other non-carbon sources will need to play a larger role. Thus nuclear power's contribution could triple or perhaps quadruple to more than 30% of the global generation mix in 2030 - around 10,000 TWh.

Nuclear power has a key role to play in reducing greenhouse gases. Every 22 tonnes of uranium (26 t U₃O₈) used saves one million tonnes of carbon dioxide relative to coal.

Use of Natural Resources

Carbon and hydrocarbon resources have many other uses that generating power on a large scale. Coal and other fossil fuels are required in a much larger quantities than uranium to produce the equivalent amount of electricity. Nuclear power already has substantially reduced the use of fossil fuels. There are particular questions of ethics and opportunity cost in the use of gas to generate base-load power.

See also Sustainable Energy in this series.

See also: Education brochures Sustainable energy: Uranium, Electricity and Climate Change, and Energy for the World - Why Uranium?

Sources
World Energy Council & IIASA, 1998, Global Energy Perspectives.
OECD/IEA, World Energy Outlook 2006.
US Energy Information Administration International Energy Outlook 2007, May 2007.