Information Papers

Iran, North Korea & Iraq - Implications for Safeguards
also South Africa, Israel, Syria and Libya

Appendix to Safeguards Briefing Paper

(May 2008)

 

Background 

Up to the late 1980s it was generally assumed that any undeclared nuclear activities would have to be based on the diversion of nuclear material from safeguards. States acknowledged the possibility of nuclear activities entirely separate from those covered by safeguards, but it was assumed they would be detected by national intelligence activities. There was no particular effort requiring the IAEA to attempt to detect them.

Not until the 1990 NPT Review Conference did some states raise the possibility of making more use of the provisions for "special inspections" in existing NPT Safeguards Agreements, for example. Special inspections can be undertaken at locations other than those where safeguards routinely apply, if there is reason to believe there may be undeclared material or activities.

However, inspections in Iraq following the 1991 UN Gulf War cease-fire resolution showed the extent of Iraq's clandestine nuclear weapons program, and it became clear that the IAEA would have to broaden the scope of its activities. Iraq was an NPT Party, and had thus agreed to place all its nuclear material under IAEA safeguards. But the inspections revealed that it had been pursuing an extensive clandestine uranium enrichment program, as well as a nuclear weapons design program.

The revelations from Iraq provided the impetus for a very far-reaching reconsideration of what safeguards are intended to achieve. (See the section on Addressing Undeclared Nuclear Activities in the main safeguards paper.)

North Korea 

In contrast, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) provides an example of safeguards succeeding in their aim of detecting a violation of safeguards obligations. It was subsequently brought to the attention of the international community through the UN Security Council.

The DPRK acceded to the NPT in 1985 as a condition for the supply of a nuclear power station by the then USSR. However, it delayed concluding its NPT Safeguards Agreement with the IAEA, a process which should take only 18 months, until April 1992.

During that period, in late 1985, it brought into operation a small gas-cooled, graphite-moderated, natural-uranium (metal) fuelled "Experimental Power Reactor" of about 25 MWt at Yongbyon, on the west coast 55 km north of Pyongyang. It exhibited all the features of a plutonium production reactor for weapons purposes and produced only about 5 MWe. North Korea also made substantial progress in the construction of two larger reactors designed on the same principles, a prototype of about 200 MWt (50 MWe) at Yongbyon, and a full-scale version of about 800 MWt (200 MWe) at Taechon, 25 km north of Yongbyon.

In addition it completed and commissioned a reprocessing plant for the extraction of plutonium from spent reactor fuel. That plutonium, if the fuel was only irradiated to a very low burn-up, would have been in a form very suitable for weapons. Although all these facilities at Yongbyon were to be under safeguards, there was always the risk that at some stage, the DPRK would withdraw from the NPT on some pretext and use the plutonium for weapons.

One of the first steps in applying NPT safeguards is for the IAEA to verify the initial stocks of uranium and plutonium to ensure that all the nuclear material in the country have been declared for safeguards purposes. While undertaking this work in 1992, IAEA inspectors found discrepancies which indicated that the reprocessing plant had been used more often than the DPRK had declared. This suggested that the DPRK could have weapons-grade plutonium which it had not declared to the IAEA. Information passed to the IAEA by a Member State (as required under the IAEA's Statute) supported that suggestion by indicating that the DPRK had two undeclared waste or other storage sites.

In February 1993 the IAEA called on the DPRK to allow special inspections of the two sites so that the initial stocks of nuclear material could be verified. The DPRK refused, and on 12 March announced its intention to withdraw from the NPT (three months notice is required). In April 1993 the IAEA Board concluded that the DPRK was in non-compliance with its safeguards obligations and reported the matter to the UN Security Council. In June 1993 the DPRK announced that it had "suspended" its withdrawal from the NPT, but subsequently claimed a "special status" with respect to its safeguards obligations. This was rejected by IAEA.

Once the DPRK's non-compliance had been reported to the UN Security Council, the essential part of the IAEA's mission had been completed. Inspections in the DPRK continued, although inspectors were increasingly hampered in what they were permitted to do by the DPRK's claim of a "special status". However, some 8,000 corroding fuel rods associated with the experimental reactor remained under close surveillance and any plans to separate plutonium from them were deferred, in the event, for eight years.

Following bilateral negotiations between DPRK and the USA, and the conclusion of the agreed framework in October 1994, the IAEA was given additional responsibilities. The agreement required a freeze on the operation and construction of the DPRK's plutonium production reactors and their related facilities, and the IAEA was responsible for monitoring the freeze until the facilities were eventually dismantled. The DPRK remained uncooperative with the IAEA verification work and did not comply with its safeguards agreement, though apparently no further work was done on the two larger reactors at Yongbyon and Taechon.

Iraq was defeated in a war, which gave the UN the opportunity to seek out and destroy its nuclear weapons program as part of the cease-fire conditions.  The DPRK was not defeated, nor was it vulnerable to other measures, such as trade sanctions. It could scarcely afford to import anything, and sanctions on vital commodities, such as oil, would either have been ineffective, or risk provoking war.

Ultimately, the DPRK was persuaded to halt its nuclear weapons program in exchange, under the agreed framework, for about $US5 billion in energy-related assistance. This included two 1000 MWe light water nuclear power reactors. There was also the prospect of diplomatic and economic relations with the USA.

At the end of 1999 The long-awaited contract to build two 1000 MWe light-water reactors was signed, enabling construction to begin. The agreement was between the Korean peninsula Economic Development Organisation (KEDO) - the international organisation in charge of the project, and the South Korean utility KEPCO, bringing technology to build a nuclear power plant which is not amenable to misuse. KEDO was set up following the 1994 deal involving the USA to head off the production of weapons plutonium from the small gas-graphite reactor and to provide much needed energy - in the short term fuel oil, but eventually electricity.

The Korean Standard Nuclear Plant (KSNP) reactors were the same as those then being built in South Korea, and were expected to be completed in 2008.  South Korea committed to provide US$ 3.22 billion for the US$ 4.6 billion project, with Japan contributing US$ 1 billion and the EU most of the balance.

In August 2002, with the project running several years behind schedule due to North Korea's continued lack of cooperation with the IAEA in verifying the history of its nuclear program, first concrete for the two-unit nuclear power plant was poured at Kumho, on the east coast. This formal start of construction was a milestone for KEDO, which planned to deliver the main components in 2005. The work would then stop unless North Korea was fully compliant with IAEA requirements regarding verification of past activities (specifically, that all nuclear material held by North Korea has been declared and placed under safeguards).

However, in October 2002 it emerged that DPRK had been working clandestinely to enrich uranium for weapons use, using centrifuge equipment. There appeared to be some linkage to Pakistan's centrifuge program and in 2005 Pakistan confirmed that it had supplied centrifuges to DPRK.

In December 2002 DPRK removed the IAEA seals on its facilities at Yongbyon and ordered the IAEA inspectors out of the country.  It then restarted its small reactor and reprocessed the 8000 irradiated fuel rods to recover weapons-grade plutonium.  In April 2003 it withdrew from the NPT - the first country to do so.

Since 2003 negotiations have been intermittently under way to secure some agreement on curtailing North Korea's nuclear weapons program. These have involved China, South Korea and the USA, which insisted upon "complete, verifiable, and irreversible dismantling of North Korea's weapons programs" through "diplomatic dialogue in a multilateral framework involving those states with the most direct stakes in the outcome."

Construction of the reactors under KEDO was suspended late in 2003, and this suspension was renewed in 2004 and 2005. The KEDO board formally terminated the project in May 2006. Most of the fabrication of steam generators, pressure vessels and other equipment for both reactors is complete. This equipment could be sold off to other nuclear projects, including South Korean export ones.

In October 2006 DPRK tested a nuclear weapon underground near Gilju in the north east of the country, and the whole matter was referred to the UN Security Council.

After several attempts at negotiation, in February 2007 agreement with DPRK was reached in the six-party talks involving China, Japan, Russia, South Korea and the USA.  This involved DPRK agreeing to shut down and seal the Yongbyon reactor and related facilities including reprocessing plant within 60 days (by 14 April) and accepting IAEA monitoring of this, in return for assistance with its energy needs.  Further assistance would follow the irreversible disabling of the reactor and all other nuclear facilities.  The April 14 deadline was missed.  After further diplomatic efforts, the reactor was shut down in mid July and an IAEA team was able to verify this and in addition, that other nuclear facilities at the site were also closed, notably the reprocessing plant ("Radiochemical Laboratory") and fuel fabrication plant. These were sealed and will be subject to ongoing monitoring by IAEA.  It is proposed to send the used fuel to Mayak in Russia or Sellafield in UK for reprocessing.
The second phase of measures under the February 2007 agreement will involve establishing a full inventory of nuclear materials and actually disabling the offending plants - now promised by end of December 2007.  Phase 3 is when North Korea hands over fissile materials and weapons gear. There remains a question about uranium enrichment capacity.  North Korea has raised the question of reviving the KEDO project for building a light water reactor.

See also DPRK section of IAEA web site. 

Iran 

Iran attracted world attention in 2002 when previously undeclared nuclear facilities became the subject of IAEA inquiry. On investigation, the IAEA found inconsistencies in Iran's declarations to the Agency and raised questions as to whether Iran was in violation of its safeguards agreement, as a signatory of the NPT.

Iran joined the NPT in 1974 and in 1975-76 construction started on two 1293 MWe nuclear reactors comprising the Bushehr power station on the Persian Gulf. Siemens KWU was the contractor. After the Islamic revolution, payment was withheld and work was abandoned early in 1979 with unit 1 substantially complete.

In 1994 Russia was brought in to complete unit 1 as a VVER-1000 reactor.  This necessitated major changes, including fabrication of all the reactor components in Russia under a construction contract with Atomstroyexport.  It is expected that the reactor will start up late in 2008 with commercial operation in 2009.

All fuel for the life of the reactor will be supplied from Russia, and it is intended that used fuel will be returned there, obviating the need for any fuel cycle facilities in Iran. All work has been under IAEA safeguards and operation will also be under safeguards. The Atomic Energy Organisation of Iran has announced that construction of unit 2 is to proceed and that feasibility studies for a further 5000 MWe have been ordered.

The 6-7 TWh/yr output from the first reactor will free up about 1.6 million tonnes (11 million barrels) of oil per year for export (or c 1800 million m3 of gas).

In 2000 Iran declared its intention to build a uranium conversion plant (UCF) at the Esfahan Nuclear Technology Centre. At the same time it started building at Natanz a sophisticated enrichment plant, which it declared to IAEA after it was identified in 2002 by a dissident group. This is known as the Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant (PFEP), but also at Natanz a large underground Fuel Enrichment Plant (FEP) is being developed. Then traces of highly-enriched uranium were found at another facility connected with Natanz, the Kalaye Electric Co in Tehran. These traces were central to questions about Iran's compliance with its safeguards agreement.

In 1991 Iran imported 1.8 tonnes of natural uranium from China. Iran did not declare this material however until 2002, and not all of it has been accounted for. Some was converted to metallic form - not required for any part of Iran's declared program. The country has very small uranium reserves, apparently insufficient for any nuclear power program.

Iran has a 5 MW pool-type research reactor in Tehran. It is also developing a 40 MW heavy water-moderated "research" reactor at Arak fuelled by natural uranium. The IR-40 design is very similar to those used by India and Israel to make plutonium for nuclear weapons. Construction is under way and the incomplete plant was "inaugurated" in August 2006. It is due for completion about 2009 and Iran has said that it will be under IAEA safeguards. A heavy water production plant is already under construction at Arak.

A fuel manufacturing plant is being constructed at Esfahan from 2003, its stated purpose being to serve the IR-40 reactor and Bushehr.

All the above facilities, except the Kalaye plant and the Arak heavy water plant, were under IAEA safeguards as of mid 2003. Details are in the Director-General's report to the IAEA Board of 6 June and 9 September 2003, and subsequent reports such as those to May 2007 on IAEA web site.

As an expression of international concern about all these facilities apart from Bushehr, the IAEA gave Iran until the end of October 2003 to resolve outstanding questions about them and its materials. In "a welcome and positive development", Iran then formally told the IAEA that it would accept the Additional Protocol to its safeguards agreement with IAEA, and that it would suspend all enrichment-related and reprocessing activities in Iran, specifically those at Natanz. However, implementation of measures in accordance with the Additional Protocol was suspended early in 2006, and enrichment resumed.

An IAEA report released to its member states in November 2003 showed that Iran had, in a series of contraventions of its safeguards agreement over 22 years, systematically concealed its development of key techniques which are capable of use for nuclear weapons. In particular, that uranium enrichment and plutonium separation from spent fuel were carried out on a laboratory scale. Iran admitted to the activities but said they were trivial.

In June 2004 The IAEA Board criticised Iran for failing to cooperate adequately with IAEA investigations of its nuclear program. Something of a stand-off then ensued until in August 2005 Iran announced that it would continue its endeavours to enrich uranium, despite international attempts to dissuade it, and the 200 t/yr conversion plant at Isfahan was started. However, the uranium feed from Iran's mines has significant levels of molybdenum and other contaminants which frustrate plans for any enrichment, and particularly so for high enrichment. Estimates vary widely regarding what is required to overcome these problems.

In August 2005 the IAEA Board called upon Iran to suspend work associated with uranium enrichment. In March 2006 the IAEA referred the issue to the UN Security Council. However Iran has not backed off from its intention to pursue uranium enrichment.

In June 2006 the Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant (PFEP) at Natanz was operating a 164-centrifuge cascade commissioned in March which had produced 3.6% enriched material. Two other 164-machine cascades were being installed. Construction of the underground Fuel Enrichment Plant (FEP) was ongoing. Operations at the PFEP, FEP and the UCF are under international safeguards, though monitoring is constrained.

The IAEA 2003 report said that while no evidence of a weapons program has been found, it would take some time before the IAEA could conclude that Iran's nuclear program is exclusively for peaceful purposes. In April 2006 it said that after three years of investigation and requests for information, the existing gaps in knowledge of Iran's nuclear program continued to a matter of concern. The required "transparency and active cooperation by Iran" to enable the IAEA "to understand fully the twenty years of undeclared nuclear activities by Iran" were not forthcoming.

In March 2007 the Russian government told Iran that it would indefinitely withhold fuel for the almost-complete Bushehr nuclear power reactor unless Iran suspended its uranium enrichment program. Some Russian staff working on the project returned home. The UN Security Council then agreed on sanctions.

On 24 March 2007 the UN Security Council unanimously adopted a resolution imposing further sanctions on Iran and reaffirming that Iran must take the steps required by the IAEA Board, notably to suspend its uranium enrichment activities.

The IAEA reported that in mid May 2007, in addition to the two cascades at PFEP - one of which was in operation, eight 164-unit cascades were in operation at FEP producing enrichment levels of up to 4.8%, two more were being tested and three more were under construction at Natanz in defiance of the UN. It also said that Iran had ceased providing information required under the Additional Protocol.

In June 2007 the IAEA Director General said: "Iran has not taken the steps called for by the Board nor responded to the demands of the Security Council. The facts on the ground indicate that Iran continues steadily to perfect its knowledge relevant to enrichment and to expand the capacity of its enrichment facility. Iran has also continued with the construction of its heavy water reactor at Arak. … This is taking place without the Agency being able to make any progress in its efforts to resolve outstanding issues relevant to the nature and scope of Iran´s nuclear programme, or being able to implement the Additional Protocol that would enable the verification of the absence of undeclared nuclear activities."

In November 2007 Iran announced that the initial target of 3000 centrifuges had been reached - evidently 18 cascades operating. However the operation appears to be at low capacity.
Clearly Iran has played for time since the discovery in 2002 of its activities contravening its obligations under the NPT, and has developed its enrichment capacity to a high level meanwhile.

The IAEA continues full involvement with Iran on nuclear safety issues, focused on Bushehr.

The IAEA stated clearly in November 2007 that unless the Additional Protocol was ratified and in place it is not possible for the Agency to establish that undeclared nuclear materials and activities are absent. Its "knowledge about Iran's current nuclear program is diminishing."   Meanwhile enrichment continues and hence a third UN Security Council resolution is likely.

The Iran situation has revived wider concerns about which countries should develop facilities with high proliferation significance - such as enrichment and reprocessing, even under safeguards if there is no evident economic rationale. At some point in the future, such a country could give three months notice of withdrawal from the NPT and reconfigure its facilities for weapons production. The USA asserts that Iran has been in fact developing just such a breakout capability.

See also Iran section of IAEA web site. and Atomic Energy Organisation of Iran 

Iraq 

The main thrust of Iraq's uranium enrichment program to 1991 was the development of technology for electromagnetic isotope separation (EMIS) of indigenous uranium. This uses the same principles as a mass spectrometer (albeit on a much larger scale). Ions of uranium-238 and uranium-235 are separated because they describe arcs of different radii when they move through a magnetic field. This process was used in the Manhattan Project to make the highly enriched uranium used in the Hiroshima bomb, but was abandoned soon afterwards.

The Iraqis did the basic research work at their nuclear research establishment at Tuwaitha, near Baghdad, and were building two full-scale facilities at Tarmiya and Ash Sharqat, north of Baghdad. However, when the war broke out, only a few separators had been installed at Tarmiya, and none at Ash Sharqat.

The Iraqis were also very interested in centrifuge enrichment, and had been able to acquire some components including some carbon-fibre rotors, which they were at an early stage of testing.

They were clearly in violation of their NPT and safeguards obligations, and the IAEA Board of Governors ruled to that effect. The UN Security Council then ordered the IAEA to remove, destroy or render harmless Iraq's nuclear weapons capability. This was done by mid 1998, but Iraq then ceased all cooperation with the UN, so the IAEA withdrew from this work.

South Africa 

Another case of developing nuclear weapons was not under the NPT. Here, the state concerned had a nuclear power program producing nearly 10% of the country's electricity, whereas Iraq and North Korea only had research reactors. In addition to a 300,000 SWU/yr uranium enrichment plant at Valindaba which was set up to serve its nuclear power program during a time of trade sanctions, South Africa had a small finishing plant at Pelindaba which took a small proportion of the output and enriched it to weapons-grade.

In 1991, South Africa acceded to the NPT, concluded a comprehensive safeguards agreement with the IAEA, and submitted a report on its nuclear material subject to safeguards. However, the IAEA's initial verification task was complicated by the country's announcement that between 1979 and 1989 it built and then dismantled a number of nuclear weapons. The IAEA was asked by South Africa to verify the conclusion of its weapons program.

In 1995 the IAEA was able to declare that it was satisfied all materials were accounted for and the weapons program had been terminated and dismantled.

Israel 

Israel is one of three significant countries which have never been part of the NPT. Unlike India and Pakistan, Israel has no civil nuclear power program.

After Israel was established in 1948, there was close collaboration between France and Israel in nuclear research. Israeli scientists were involved with early French facilities near Marcoule.

In 1952 the Israel Atomic Energy Commission was established, and in 1955 the USA agreed to supply a 5 MWt pool-type reactor for Nahal Soreq, south of Tel Aviv. This IRR-1 required high-enriched uranium supplied from the USA. It started up in 1960 and from the outset was required to be under IAEA safeguards.

In 1957 an agreement was signed with France to build a large (24 MW thermal) heavy water research reactor at Dimona in the Negev desert. This would run on natural uranium and incidentally be suitable for producing weapons-grade plutonium. France apparently supplied four tonnes of heavy water for the reactor and also assisted in the construction of a reprocessing plant at the site.

In 1960 France reportedly urged Israel to put Dimona under full international safeguards, but this was not done. Due to US pressure, cursory twice-yearly inspections were carried out of the reactor only. The reactor started up in 1964, and with the benefit of oversize cooling circuits, power was subsequently raised to 70 MWt. A full suite of infrastructure is reportedly at the Dimona site, including fuel fabrication.

Uranium for the reactor was initially sourced from indigenous deposits, but most is believed to have come from South Africa, over some 20 years of nuclear collaboration from 1967.

In 1968 the US Central Intelligence Agency concluded that Israel had started producing nuclear weapons from separated plutonium. In 1974 it appeared to have 20 nuclear bombs, and by the late 1990s the estimate had grown to 75-130 nuclear warheads. No tests have been undertaken in Israel, but it is widely believed that Israel collaborated with South Africa in a 1979 test off the east coast there.

Israel has never confirmed or denied that it has nuclear weapons.

Using conventional weapons, an Israeli Air Force strike in 1981 destroyed Iraq's Osirak nuclear research reactor near Baghdad.

Syria

From about 2001 to 2007 Syria constructed a graphite-moderated gas-cooled nuclear reactor at a remote site on the Euphrates River, near Al Kibar.  It was very similar to the plutonium production reactor at Yongbyon in North Korea.  Before fuel was loaded it was damaged beyond repair by an Israeli air strike in September 2007 and the remains were demolished and buried soon after.  The entire enterprise, apparently aimed at production of weapons plutonium, was clandestine and in breach of Syria's obligations under the NPT.  The evidence also pointed to North Korean involvement in supplying nuclear equipment.

Libya

After several months of negotiations, Libya agreed in December 2003 to halt its development of nuclear weapons. For more than a decade it had been engaged in the development of a uranium enrichment capability, based on importing natural uranium together with centrifuge and conversion equipment, and the construction of now-dismantled pilot-scale centrifuge facilities. Some of these activities should have been reported to the IAEA under Libya's Safeguards Agreement with the UN body, but were not.

Evidently Libya's nuclear enrichment program was at an early stage and no industrial-scale facility had been built, nor any enriched uranium produced. Pakistan, which is not a party to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, is reported to have been the source of the illicit technology.

Libya has a Russian 10 MW research reactor using 80% enriched fuel, which has been under IAEA safeguards. It has no nuclear power program. It asked the IAEA to verify publicly that all of its nuclear activities will henceforth be under safeguards and exclusively for peaceful purposes. In that regard, Libya has agreed to take the necessary steps to conclude an Additional Protocol to its NPT Safeguards Agreement, as signed by Iran. This will provide the IAEA with broader inspection rights, and will require full transparency and active co-operation. The first IAEA inspections of previously-undeclared facilities were at the end of December 2003.

main Sources:
Australian Safeguards & Non-proliferation Office, Euratom.
Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, March 2003, North Korea's nuclear program 2003.
Bulletin of Atomic Scientists Sep-Oct 2002.