William N. Szymanski

Appendix 1: Potential availability of US and Russian government surplus inventories based on schedules in place as of 31 March 1997 (thousand tU equivalent)

	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	Total

Russian HEU^a	5.5	7.3	9.2	9.2	9.2	9.2	9.2	9.2	9.2	9.2	9.2	9.2	9.2	9.2	123.2
Russian HEU: pre-1997^b	1.0	1.4	0.3	0.0	0.0	1.2	1.2	0.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	5.5

Total Russian HEU feed	6.5	8.7	9.5	9.2	9.2	10.3	10.3	9.7	9.7	9.2	9.2	9.2	9.2	9.2	128.6

US HEU transfer: 13.2 t^c	0.8	0.8	0.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.4
US HEU transfer: 50 t^d	0.0	0.4	0.5	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	15.4
US HEU: 40 t "off-spec"^e	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	5.8

Total US HEU feed	0.8	1.2	1.3	0.6	1.2	1.2	1.2	1.2	1.2	1.2	1.1	0.6	0.6	0.6	13.6

US natural U transfer^f	0.0	0.8	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	7.0
US LEU & natural U sales^g	1.2	1.2	1.2	1.2	1.2	1.2	1.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	8.3

Total US natural U and LEU	1.2	2.0	1.9	1.9	1.8	1.8	1.8	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	15.3

Total government inventories	8.6	11.9	12.7	11.7	12.2	13.3	13.3	11.5	11.0	11.0	11.0	9.8	9.8	9.8	157.6

NOTES:
a	The quantity of Russian HEU feed corresponds to the schedule for blending down HEU from 1998 through 2001 established by the amendment to the US-Russia HEU Agreement, signed in November 1996. For 2002 and later years, it is assumed that 30 t of HEU will be blended down each year. The uranium content is equivalent to the feed contained in LEU assaying at 4.4% U-235. The LEU is to be derived from HEU and blendstock, with U-235 assays of 90% and 1.5% respectively.
b	Russian HEU feed derived from LEU purchased by United States Enrichment Corporation (USEC) in 1995 and 1996. The sale of this uranium is regulated by the USEC Privatization Act. All EIA cases contain the assumption that 2700 tU will be sold through matched sales contracts, the annual quantity limited by quotas provided for by the Suspension Agreement between the United States and Russia. The remaining 2800 tU will be sold by the US Department of Energy (DOE) beginning in 2002.
c	USEC plans to add this HEU to its production stream during 1997-99. HEU feed is assumed to be made available to the market in the year that the corresponding quantity of HEU is blended down into LEU. The uranium content is equivalent to the feed contained in LEU assaying at 4.95% U-235. The LEU is to be derived from HEU and LEU blendstock, with U-235 assays of 75.7% and 4.75% respectively.
d	Schedule pursuant to USEC Privatisation Act. The uranium content is equivalent to the feed contained in LEU assaying at 4.95% U-235. The LEU is to be derived from HEU and natural U blendstock, with average U-235 assays of 41.3% and 0.71% respectively.
e	Schedule pursuant to DOE's HEU disposition plan, September 1996. This HEU is referred to as "off-spec" because it does not meet the specifications required for materials used in preparing commercial nuclear fuel. The uranium content is equivalent to the feed contained in LEU assaying at 4.95% U-235. The LEU is to be derived from HEU having an average assay of 60.5% U-235 and depleted, natural and slightly enriched uranium blendstocks assaying between 0.27% and 1.15%.
f	Schedule pursuant to USEC Privatisation Act. USEC is assumed to market the entire quantity.
g	A determination by the Secretary of Energy was made in March 1997 regarding DOE's proposal to sell 1200 tU in fiscal year ending 30 September 1997.
Totals may not equal sum of components because of independent rounding. Sources: Uranium contained in Russian HEU feed, Energy Resources International Inc; Uranium contained in US HEU feed, Ron Campbell, Highly Enriched Uranium Disposition Program Office, Lockheed Martin Energy Systems Inc.

The Effects of US and Russian Government Surplus Inventories:
William N. Szymanski

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