Long-Term
Cost Targets for Nuclear Energy | Table 1: Learning rates as implied by the four selected SRES scenarios and as required to match the "aggressive nuclear improvement" variations on these scenarios. | ||
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Scenario |
Implicit learning rate in original SRES scenario |
Learning rate to match "aggressive nuclear improvement" variant |
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A1T |
4-5% |
7%2 |
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A2 |
0-1% |
6% |
|
B1 |
3-4% |
10% |
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B2 |
0-1% |
8% |
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| 2The learning rate for A1T scenario was derived from a one-region version of MESSAGE while the other scenarios use multi-region versions. One weakness of the one-region model is that all resources around the world are equally available to meet all energy demands, no matter where they arise. Thus, when the A1T Scenario is re-analyzed with a multi-region version and resources cannot flow instantly around the world, we expect that a higher nuclear learning rate will be needed for energy supplies to meet energy demands. | ||
© copyright The World Nuclear Association 2003